Date: 2010-01-11 11:48 pm (UTC)
In the commentary to In The Beginning, Kripke says that he always saw it as a closed loop - the YED targeted Mary because Dean led her to him, Dean led her to him because the YED targeted Mary. You get into a bunch of time-paradoxes, but basically it does come down to it all being predestined...which sort of sucks, or another way to look at it is that once the loop starts, there is no escaping it - so, Mary's choice to get out of bed, Dean's choice to involve the Campbells in the 1973 Hunt made it an inescapable loop, though caused by free-will.

That being said, I assumed that the crimes Bloody Mary accused people of had to be crimes they were AWARE of. Even if that wasn't the case though, if you look at Dean's life as an individual time-stream separate from regular time - the events of In The Beginning had not happened yet for him. They had happened for the rest of the world, but not his particular time-stream. I know this is getting into sort of Doctor Who timey-whimey stuff, but what I'm trying to say is that if it WAS the events in ITB, I'd be extremely disappointed in Kripke.
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